The winners of the third round of the European statistics awards on nowcasting
We are very pleased to announce the winners of the Accuracy, Reusability and Innovativity awards of the International Trade Nowcasting Challenge.
Since 2022, Eurostat has conducted engaging competitions in the fields of nowcasting and web intelligence, with the primary objective of unveiling innovative methodologies and valuable data resources to enhance the production of European statistics.
The third round of nowcasting competitions has now concluded.
We thank all participants for having contributed to the success of this third round through their submissions.
Congratulations to all the winners!
Nowcasting – 3rd round – International Trade Nowcasting Competition
The European Statistics Awards Programme on Nowcasting aims at improving timelines of European Statistics which is a recurring demand by policymakers and other users of European statistics.
We were looking for new approaches based on advanced modelling (possibly using alternative, almost real-time, information) that could give us accurate estimates of key indicators much faster than before.
The third round of the Nowcasting awards was divided into 3 separate competitions, each focusing on the nowcasting of one international trade indicator.
European International Trade Intra-EU exports:
- [EU27_2020] European Union - 27 countries (from 2020) (Geopolitical entity (partner))
- [ET-T] Total (Indicator)
- [EXP] Export (Stock of flow)
- [MIO-EUR-NSA] Trade value - million of euro - not seasonally adjusted (Unit of measure)
European International Trade Extra-EU exports
- [EXT_EU27_2020] Extra-EU27 (from 2020) (Geopolitical entity (partner))
- [ET-T] Total (Indicator)
- [EXP] Export (Stock of flow)
- [MIO-EUR-NSA] Trade value - million of euro - not seasonally adjusted (Unit of measure)
European International Trade Extra-EU imports
- [EXT_EU27_2020] Extra-EU27 (from 2020) (Geopolitical entity (partner))
- [ET-T] Total (Indicator)
- [IMP] Import (Stock of flow)
- [MIO-EUR-NSA] Trade value - million of euro - not seasonally adjusted (Unit of measure)
Trade flows cover all goods entering (imports) or leaving (exports) the statistical territories of the EU Member States. Extra-EU refers to transactions with all countries outside of the EU: the rest of the world except for the European Union (EU) Member States.
As part of the competition requirements, teams were expected to submit 6 point estimates of monthly time series across all 27 EU countries. Teams were also required to provide comprehensive methodological descriptions, including source code.
The International Trade Nowcasting Challenge was launched in October 2024, with a final deadline for submissions in March 2025 and documentation in April 2025.
Participation was quite wide as a total of 35 teams, comprised of 66 individuals from 17 countries, signed up for this competition. The results of the evaluation are announced below.
The participants were competing for three types of awards:
- The Accuracy Award prizes were given to the top three teams whose entries yielded point estimates closest to the published indicator.
- The Reusability Award prize was given to the team whose entry shows great potential to be scaled up to European statistics production. The Reusability Award was intended to support the best described and documented solutions, with the most innovative, open approach using open data.
- The Innovativity Award prize was given to the team whose entry shows the most originality in its approach. The Innovativity award is intended to support the most thoroughly described and documented solutions, with the most innovative approach.
ACCURACY AWARD WINNERS - INTRA-EU EXPORTS
| Place | Prize | Team name | Team members | Country | Winning entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st place | 3 000 EUR | YXAnalysis | Yingfu Xie | Sweden | Entry 1 |
| 2nd place | 2 000 EUR | TURKSTAT-DATG |
Osman Serty Özlem Yiğit Fatih Tüzen Fatma Aydan Kocacan Nuray |
Türkiye | Entry 3 |
| 3rd place | 1 000 EUR | bernese |
Sarah Schneeberger Marc Burri |
Switzerland | Entry 2 |
ACCURACY AWARD WINNERS – EXTRA-EU EXPORTS
| Place | Prize | Team name | Team members | Country | Winning entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st place | 3 000 EUR | TURKSTAT-DATG |
Osman Serty Özlem Yiğit Fatih Tüzen Fatma Aydan Kocacan Nuray |
Türkiye | Entry 5 |
| 2nd place | 2 000 EUR | bernese |
Sarah Schneeberger Marc Burri |
Switzerland | Entry 3 |
| 3rd place | 1 000 EUR | YXAnalysis | Yingfu Xie | Sweden | Entry 3 |
ACCURACY AWARD WINNERS – EXTRA-EU IMPORTS
| Place | Prize | Team name | Team members | Country | Winning entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st place | 3 000 EUR | TURKSTAT-DATG |
Osman Serty Özlem Yiğit Fatih Tüzen Fatma Aydan Kocacan Nuray |
Türkiye | Entry 2 |
| 2nd place | 2 000 EUR | YXAnalys | Yingfu Xie | Sweden | Entry 1 |
| 3rd place | 1 000 EUR | TheItalianJob |
Pasquale Maritato Andrea Alessandrelli |
Italy | Entry 2 |
REUSABILITY AWARD WINNERS
| Competition | Prize | Team name | Team members | Country | Winning entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTRA-EU EXPORTS | 5 000 EUR | TURKSTAT-DATG |
Osman Serty Özlem Yiğit Fatih Tüzen Fatma Aydan Kocacan Nuray |
Türkiye | Entry 3 |
| EXTRA-EU EXPORTS | 5 000 EUR | TURKSTAT-DATG |
Osman Serty Özlem Yiğit Fatih Tüzen Fatma Aydan Kocacan Nuray |
Türkiye | Entry 5 |
| EXTRA-EU IMPORTS | 5 000 EUR | TURKSTAT-DATG |
Osman Serty Özlem Yiğit Fatih Tüzen Fatma Aydan Kocacan Nuray |
Türkiye | Entry 2 |
INNOVATIVITY AWARD WINNERS
| Competition | Prize | Team name | Team members | Country | Winning entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTRA-EU EXPORTS | 5 000 EUR | TURKSTAT-DATG |
Osman Serty Özlem Yiğit Fatih Tüzen Fatma Aydan Kocacan Nuray |
Türkiye | Entry 3 |
| EXTRA-EU EXPORTS | 5 000 EUR | TURKSTAT-DATG |
Osman Serty Özlem Yiğit Fatih Tüzen Fatma Aydan Kocacan Nuray |
Türkiye | Entry 5 |
| EXTRA-EU IMPORTS | 5 000 EUR | TURKSTAT-DATG |
Osman Serty Özlem Yiğit Fatih Tüzen Fatma Aydan Kocacan Nuray |
Türkiye | Entry 2 |
SOLUTIONS OF THE REUSABILITY AND INNOVATIVITY AWARD WINNERS
Since the Reusability and Innovativity awards were intended to support the most thoroughly described and documented solutions, with the most innovative, open approach, we are happy to share with you the solutions which won this prize in three competitions (INTRA-EU Exports; EXTRA-EU Exports; Extra-EU Imports).
This round of nowcasting competitions has concluded with one team claiming exceptional achievements!
Team TURKSTAT-DATG has won both the Reusability and Innovativity prizes across all three competitions. Their solution clearly stood out from other submissions in both innovation and clarity. In presenting their solution, team TURKSTAT-DATG demonstrated a textbook example of reproducible architecture, developing an innovative nowcasting solution that combines theoretical rigor with practical simplicity. Their methodology extends the well-established TRAMO/SEATS framework—widely used in official statistics for seasonal adjustment—by incorporating trade-weighted foreign variables such as relative prices, partner country industrial production, and exchange rates. The approach features both multivariate and univariate specifications, with their ensemble entry averaging forecasts from both models to balance complexity and robustness. Key strengths include exceptional replicability through open-source code and versioned data management, scalability via a modular, control-table-driven architecture that can easily accommodate new countries or indicators, interpretability with transparent, theory-driven predictors grounded in international trade economics, and maintainability using widely-adopted R packages and clear documentation.
The team demonstrated that simpler, transparent econometric models can outperform more complex alternatives like GVAR and LSTM while remaining fast - approximately 3 minutes runtime - cost-effective, and suitable for operational implementation in statistical offices. Their methodology offers a sustainable, production-ready solution that successfully balances statistical sophistication with practical usability.
Their solutions can be found in the following links:
INTRA-EU EXPORTS
The GitHub repository containing the code and full project documentation is publicly accessible here:
EXTRA-EU EXPORTS
The GitHub repository containing the code and full project documentation is publicly accessible here:
EXTRA-EU IMPORTS
The GitHub repository containing the code and full project documentation is publicly accessible here:
Final Accuracy Rankings
INTRA-EU EXPORTS
| Rank | Team name | Entry 1 score | Entry 2 score | Entry 3 score | Entry 4 score | Entry 5 score | Best entry score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YXAnalys | 1.037919 | 1.063767 | 1.270191 | 1.761887 | 3.724523 | 1.037919 |
| 2 | MDPEI* | 1.078356 | 1.723528 | 1.856539 | 1.078356 | ||
| 3 | TURKSTAT-DATG | 1.186880 | 1.159647 | 1.122060 | 5.503185 | 1.122060 | |
| 4 | bernese | 1.266152 | 1.124677 | 1.175348 | 2.179550 | 2.071127 | 1.124677 |
| 5 | TheItalianJob | 1.445266 | 1.178518 | 1.531282 | 1.348990 | 1.747407 | 1.178518 |
| 6 | swissKnife | 1.509885 | 1.504882 | 1.328074 | 1.458235 | 1.430870 | 1.328074 |
| 7 | dhopp1 | 1.519204 | 2.178851 | 2.171331 | 2.166175 | 1.836854 | 1.519204 |
| 8 | PM10 | 1.932633 | 1.561668 | 1.646632 | 1.581200 | 5.459578 | 1.561668 |
| 9 | TwoPoorLeBeef | 1.778724 | 2.443400 | 3.041640 | 3.213583 | 2.051408 | 1.778724 |
| 10 | Koala | 2.223425 | 2.129698 | 2.193860 | 2.129698 | ||
| 11 | NowcastAway | 2.222950 | 2.222950 | ||||
| 12 | SBoPC | 17.633400 | 17.633400 | ||||
| 13 | GladGan | 21.135067 | 20.512432 | 19.789642 | 19.789642 | ||
| - | ALKlions | These teams did not provide the point estimates for all 27 countries in the 6 reference periods. | |||||
| - | ASE_TEAM | ||||||
| - | DMK | ||||||
| - | Irreversible2002 | ||||||
| - | TeamTITLE | ||||||
| - | mustafaaskin | ||||||
| - | vishleshak | ||||||
*The team did not submit additional documentation describing their approach, which was an eligibility condition in this round of nowcasting competitions, making them not eligible to receive a prize.
EXTRA-EU EXPORTS
| Rank | Team name | Entry 1 score | Entry 2 score | Entry 3 score | Entry 4 score | Entry 5 score | Best entry score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TURKSTAT-DATG | 2.773883 | 2.536640 | 2.462914 | 9.114443 | 2.347667 | 2.347667 |
| 2 | bernese | 3.173524 | 2.883527 | 2.501374 | 4.501754 | 3.625476 | 2.501374 |
| 3 | YXAnalys | 2.829602 | 2.903989 | 2.613216 | 3.385717 | 11.757464 | 2.613216 |
| 4 | swissKnife | 3.529842 | 3.388761 | 2.897752 | 3.684396 | 3.810175 | 2.897752 |
| 5 | PM10 | 3.343061 | 3.222833 | 2.975636 | 2.931701 | 6.713841 | 2.931701 |
| 6 | TheItalianJob | 3.531817 | 2.935007 | 3.952705 | 3.222799 | 3.260060 | 2.935007 |
| 7 | TwoPoolLeBeef | 3.177492 | 4.678633 | 476.246224 | 56.735239 | 54.682124 | 3.177492 |
| 8 | Koala | 3.507434 | 3.492856 | 3.495044 | 3.492856 | ||
| 9 | dhopp1 | 5.018054 | 5.338617 | 4.214738 | 4.277930 | 4.527877 | 4.214738 |
| 10 | NowcastAway | 8.697452 | 8.697452 | ||||
| 11 | SBoPC* | 13.560360 | 13.560360 | ||||
| 12 | GladGan | 25.834350 | 23.830435 | 23.794490 | 23.794490 | ||
| 13 | MDPEI | 60.416550 | 43.894554 | 43.157589 | 43.157589 | ||
| - | ALKlions | These teams did not provide the point estimates for all 27 countries in the 6 reference periods. | |||||
| - | ASE_TEAM | ||||||
| - | DMK | ||||||
| - | Irreversible2002 | ||||||
| - | TeamTITLE | ||||||
| - | mustafaaskin | ||||||
| - | vishleshak | ||||||
*The team did not submit additional documentation describing their approach, which was an eligibility condition in this round of nowcasting competitions, making them not eligible to receive a prize.
EXTRA-EU IMPORTS
| Rank | Team name | Entry 1 score | Entry 2 score | Entry 3 score | Entry 4 score | Entry 5 score | Best entry score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TURKSTAT-DATG | 2.844196 | 2.491729 | 2.577382 | 13.789857 | 2.823987 | 2.491729 |
| 2 | YXAnalys | 2.703123 | 2.800682 | 2.768821 | 11.923124 | 14.221604 | 2.703123 |
| 3 | MDPEI* | 2.771175 | 6.345959 | 5.590750 | 2.771175 | ||
| 4 | TheItalianJob | 2.882522 | 2.837406 | 6.029215 | 3.111160 | 3.172917 | 2.837406 |
| 5 | bernese | 2.842393 | 3.096769 | 2.992410 | 4.421573 | 4.582145 | 2.842393 |
| 6 | Koala | 3.219970 | 3.107592 | 3.176519 | 3.107592 | ||
| 7 | PM10 | 3.592701 | 3.483869 | 3.322653 | 4.232146 | 5.625774 | 3.322653 |
| 8 | swissKnife | 3.442441 | 3.505265 | 3.352177 | 3.681771 | 3.326909 | 3.326909 |
| 9 | TwoPoorLeBeef | 3.360519 | 3.697845 | 5.886180 | 4.668456 | 3.328438 | 3.328438 |
| 10 | dhopp1 | 4.929323 | 6.299859 | 7.985763 | 7.269455 | 6.120463 | 4.929323 |
| 11 | NowcastAway | 5.992342 | 5.992342 | ||||
| 12 | SBoPC* | 8.702338 | 8.702338 | ||||
| 13 | GladGan | 22.330077 | 22.881738 | 21.942815 | 21.942815 | ||
| - | ALKlions | These teams did not provide the point estimates for all 27 countries in the 6 reference periods. | |||||
| - | ASE_TEAM | ||||||
| - | DMK | ||||||
| - | Irreversible2002 | ||||||
| - | TeamTITLE | ||||||
| - | mustafaaskin | ||||||
| - | vishleshak | ||||||
*The team did not submit additional documentation describing their approach, which was an eligibility condition in this round of nowcasting competitions, making them not eligible to receive a prize.